Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
899 WTPZ35 KNHC 092045 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026 ...SIMON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 104.7W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to El Roblito and for Las Islas Marias. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Simon was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 104.7 West. Simon is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. Simon is then forecast to move generally northward, with the center passing very near or over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Simon is forecast to become a major hurricane this evening and strengthen further on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area Saturday evening or Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected as soon as Saturday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Sunday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible as soon as Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning tonight or early Saturday. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit through Sunday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.