Tropical Cyclone Discussion
826 WTPZ43 KNHC 092044 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Rachel is producing limited convection this afternoon, with relatively shallow, warm cloud tops confined to the northern and eastern semicircles. A scatterometer pass at 1753 UTC showed peak satellite-derived winds of 37 kt. Satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS and TAFB range between 26 and 41 kt. Using this data, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. The system is starting to gradually increase its forward speed and is moving at an estimated 055/5 kt. Rachel should begin to accelerate toward the northeast and then north-northeast tonight and tomorrow, embedded within the flow of a deepening mid- to upper-level trough approaching the western United States. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move inland over northern Baja California late Saturday or early Sunday before continuing north-northeastward into the southwestern United States on Sunday. Track guidance remains similar to the previous cycle, with the hurricane regional models, the GFS, and the ECMWF on the left side of the envelope, and the GDMI and HCCA on the right. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. Note that there will be a sharp gradient in the wind field, with the strongest winds anticipated to remain primarily in the eastern and southern semicircles of the circulation. Rachel continues to struggle to produce anything more than shallow convection, as the system is embedded within a dry and stable air mass over cool sea surface temperatures. However, as the system begins to accelerate northeastward, a favorable trough interaction is expected, along with an increase in mid-level relative humidity. Also, sea surface temperatures just offshore of the western Baja California peninsula are anomalously warm for this time of year. Given these conditions, Rachel is expected to produce intermittent bursts of convection and strengthen, up until landfall, even though vertical wind shear will increase significantly as the system approaches the coast. Once inland, rapid weakening is expected, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical over the southwestern United States. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope, although some of the hurricane regional models and the HCCA are slightly higher than the official forecast just offshore at 36 h. Key Messages: 1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of the northern Baja California Peninsula and extreme Southern California at tropical storm strength Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Baja California, Mexico where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in extreme Southern California and eastern Baja California where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are expected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, Saturday night and Sunday. 3. Rachel and its moisture will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban flooding. 4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal flooding, through early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 23.3N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 24.2N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 26.7N 119.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 30.9N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 36.4N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED