Hurricane Local Statement
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WTUS86 KSGX 091522
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CAZ043-050-058-062-092330-
Tropical Storm Rachel Local Statement Advisory Number 50
National Weather Service San Diego CA EP182026
822 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
This product covers EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
**Tropical Storm Rachel Will Bring Coastal Flooding, Wind, and Rain
to Portions of Southern California Sunday**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for San Diego County
Coastal Areas, San Diego County Deserts, San Diego County
Mountains, and San Diego County Valleys
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for San Diego County
Coastal Areas, San Diego County Deserts, San Diego County
Mountains, and San Diego County Valleys
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 840 miles south-southwest of San Mateo Point CA or about
810 miles southwest of Mouth of Tijuana River CA
- 22.8N 124.6W
- Storm Intensity 50 mph
- Movement Northeast or 55 degrees at 5 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Tropical Storm Rachel is moving towards Northern Baja. Rachel is
expected to make landfall somewhere near the US/Mexico Border. While
there remains some uncertainty in the track, the current trend in the
guidance increases the likelihood that Tropical Storm level impacts
may reach San Diego County on Sunday. Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for San Diego County. The main concerns with Tropical Storm
Rachel are coastal flooding, wind, and periods of heavy rain.
South swell from Tropical Storm Rachel will arrive on Sunday. The
combination of the swell along with wind waves and continued morning
high tides near 7 feet will maintain a threat of coastal flooding and
beach erosion along beaches in San Diego County. Surf on Sunday is
currently expected to be 5 to 7 feet with local sets to 9 feet,
decreasing to 3-6 feet for Monday and Tuesday. Confidence in impactful
coastal flooding is high.
Widespread rain is expected on Sunday from Tropical Storm Rachel.
There is expected to be a sharp gradient in rainfall amounts with
the higher amounts on the southeastern side of the storm. There
still remains some uncertainty in the track, but a continued
northern shift would increase potential for heavy rain across the
county with a southern shift making it more localized. We have the
highest confidence that the heaviest rain will occur over San Diego
county mountains and deserts. The most likely scenario, accounting
for around 50% of solutions, brings San Diego coast, valleys, and
deserts a soaking rain between 0.25-1" Sunday with 1-2 inches in the
mountains. Assuming the low tracks close enough to the mountains,
easterly flow over the desert slopes could yield high rates (>0.5/hr)
and totals (1-2 inches). The higher end case brings 1-2" over the
coast, valleys, deserts and 2-4" over the mountains, which could result
in more numerous impacts.
Increased winds are expected with the onset and passage of TS
Rachel. Sustained winds of 39+ mph are expected on the southeast
side of the storm. If the track continues to move further north,
that would put more of San Diego county in a position to see winds
of that magnitude. Based on the current track, more southern parts
of the county are most likely to see winds of this magnitude.
Regardless, stronger than normal sustained winds and wind gusts can be
expected on Sunday.
Locations north of San Diego County are expected to also see impacts
from coastal flooding, the potential for heavy rain, and elevated
winds.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across San
Diego County. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted, especially in coastal and valley locations that
don't typically experience strong winds. Some fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
Elsewhere across EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA, little to no impact
is anticipated.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across San Diego County. Potential impacts include:
- Heavy rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues, especially in and below recently burned areas.
- Rivers may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and
overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually
vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, arroyos, and ditches
overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous.
Some road closures.
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across San Diego County.
* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
High tides reaching 7 ft, combined with high surf and gusty onshore
winds will increase the threat for coastal flooding across area
beaches. Additionally surf of 6 to 9 ft will create dangerous swimming
conditions.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean, in a low-lying or poor drainage area, or in a valley,
plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground.
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit
and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home
or business.
Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
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The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in San Diego CA around 2 PM PDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.