Tropical Cyclone Discussion
209 WTPZ43 KNHC 091456 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Satellite images indicate that Rachel is struggling to maintain deep convection, with only limited and shallow convection remaining near the center of circulation. A scatterometer pass received shortly after the previous advisory indicated peak winds of around 43 kt. Satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 31 to 44 kt, while the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is T2.5/35 kt. Given the scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving northeastward at an estimated 055/4 kt. A deepening mid-to upper-level trough moving into the eastern Pacific toward the western United States is expected to steer Rachel northeastward to north-northeastward with an increasing forward speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move inland over northern Baja California late Saturday or early Sunday before continuing northeastward into the southwestern United States on Sunday. There has been a northward shift in the latest track guidance, with the global and hurricane regional models now bringing the center near the U.S./Mexico border or into extreme southern California. The latest NHC track forecast has been nudged northward and lies between the global and regional hurricane models to the left, and the HCCA and GDMI slightly to the right. Given this track forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of northern Baja California and southern California. There will be a sharp gradient in the wind field, with the strongest winds anticipated to remain primarily in the eastern and southern semicircles of the circulation. Rachel remains embedded within a very dry air mass, with mid-level relative humidity values in the lower 30 percent range. Sea surface temperatures of around 24-25C will also limit convective organization. However, interaction with the aforementioned deepening trough is expected to increase mid-level moisture and improve upper-level divergence, allowing Rachel to produce intermittent bursts of deep convection and maintain tropical cyclone status. Furthermore, there are anomalously warm waters just offshore of northern Baja California for this time of year, running roughly 6-7C above normal. There has been a notable upward trend in the intensity guidance from the global and regional models this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. As the system approaches the coast, increasing vertical wind shear is expected to displace the remaining convection downshear toward the northeastern portion of the circulation. Rachel is forecast to remain a strong tropical storm as it makes landfall. Once inland, rapid weakening is expected, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical over the southwestern United States. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope, reflecting the complex interactions between Rachel and the approaching trough, as well as the inherent uncertainty in how models handle these processes. Key Messages: 1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of the northern Baja California Peninsula and southern California at tropical storm strength Saturday night, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from San Jose de Las Palomas, Mexico northward into southern California to the San Diego/Orange County Line. 2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are expected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, Saturday night and Sunday. 3. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential of flash and urban flooding. 4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal flooding, through early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 22.8N 124.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 23.4N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 25.1N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 28.5N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 33.3N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0000Z 38.1N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED