Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
164 WTNT34 KNHC 091453 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...CENTER OF ISAIAS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST THIS EVENING... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA COASTS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 87.3W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS * East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 87.3 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through this evening, followed by a northward motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall within the warning area this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaias is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible through this afternoon, but Isaias is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall this evening. Weakening is expected beginning tonight after Isaias makes landfall, and the storm is likely to become post-tropical by late Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... AL/FL Border to Grayton Beach, FL...6-9 ft Grayton Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-7 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-6 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft Lower Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Upper Mobile Bay...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning this evening into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the next few hours. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland as far as 100 miles from the coast into southern Alabama. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning in the next few hours. RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the region, with considerable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. River flooding is also expected, some of which could be significant. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A tornado risk will begin this afternoon and continue tonight in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday across parts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas. SURF: Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and are spreading northward toward the Gulf Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.