Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
707 AXNT20 KNHC 090957 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Isaias is centered near 26.4N 88.0W at 09/0900 UTC or 320 nm NNE of Progreso Mexico, moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is across the eastern Gulf between 83W-90W. Strongest storms are occurring within 90 nm of the center of Isaias. Seas near the center are up to 32 ft. A turn toward the north is expected later today. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Saturday. Isaias is likely to become a major hurricane this morning. Slight weakening is expected before landfall, but it is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane. Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and will spread northward toward the Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 17N and east of 38W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 15N to 23N and between 74W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues westward to 1012 mb low near 12N33W to 09N41W. Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on the convection over the eastern Atlantic. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Isaias centered over the central Gulf of America. A stationary front extends from the western Atlantic across central Florida and into the north-central Gulf waters near 28N89W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near this boundary as it interacts with Isaias. Some showers and thunderstorms are also evident in the SW Gulf waters. Outside of the direct influence of Isaias, moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas prevail. For the forecast, Isaias will move to 28.4N 87.3W this afternoon, inland to 31.0N 87.1W Sat morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 33.5N 87.5W Sat afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 35.5N 86.7W Sun morning, inland to 38.2N 83.1W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. Swells generated by the cyclone will spread northward across the basin central Gulf through Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker return flow over the western Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active tropical wave in the western Caribbean. A weak subtropical ridge between Bermuda and the Outer Banks sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are noted west of 82W due to the influence of Hurricane Isaias currently over the Gulf of America. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient results in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the eastern and central Caribbean and this will continue over the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong speeds and seas will reach 8 ft tonight through Sun night in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Venezuela. Hurricane Isaias over the central Gulf of America is producing fresh southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel and these winds will lift northward today. Meanwhile, a tropical wave near 79W is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the area. Unsettled weather conditions will remain associated with this wave as it moves across the western Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from south of Bermuda to central Florida near Melbourne. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found off NE Florida. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft. A strong 1033 mb high pressure system just north of the Azores and a surface trough along 50W combine to support moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft north of the monsoon trough and east of 50W. A few showers are seen east of the surface trough. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will lift back N as a warm front on Sat. Fresh to strong E winds and rough seas are expected today off NE Florida as Hurricane Isaias tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at moderate to fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to gentle to moderate speeds by Sun. Otherwise, as high pressure moves into the western Atlantic, a tightening pressure gradient will support NE-E winds of fresh to locally strong speeds and rough seas behind a cold front over the eastern waters, mainly N of 26N, Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern coast early on Mon and move across the waters N of 29N through Tue night while it weakens. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will dominate much of the basin early next week.