Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
121 AXPZ20 KNHC 090902 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Simon is centered near 15.8N 104.5W at 09/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 13N to 17N between 103W and 107W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 100W and 111W. Simon is expected to approach the west-central coast of Mexico as a major hurricane on Saturday. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 22.7N 124.9W at 09/0900 UTC, moving northeast at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of center. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of northern Baja California, Mexico, and the northern Gulf of California at tropical storm strength over the weekend. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California Peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and the potential for flash and urban flooding. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding, through early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N94W, then resumes near 14N129W to beyond 09N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 06N between 84W and 96W, and from 00N to 07N between 134W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Simon. Outside of the areas impacted by Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 15.8N 104.5W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Simon will move to 16.1N 104.7W this afternoon, 16.7N 104.9W Sat morning, 17.6N 105.0W Sat afternoon, 18.6N 105.1W Sun morning, inland to 19.9N 105.3W Sun afternoon, and 21.4N 105.4W Mon morning. Simon will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland near 23.7N 106.0W early Tue. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 22.7N 124.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northeast at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Rachel will move to 23.0N 124.4W this afternoon, 24.1N 122.4W Sat morning, 26.5N 119.3W Sat afternoon, 30.8N 116.5W Sun morning, inland to 35.3N 114.2W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N of 03N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 03N. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through the middle of next week. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Rachel. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, moderate to fresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail N of 15N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 23.0N 124.4W this afternoon, 24.1N 122.4W Sat morning, 26.5N 119.3W Sat afternoon, 30.8N 116.5W Sun morning, inland to 35.3N 114.2W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. A tightening pressure gradient between Rachel and a ridge over the NW forecast area will bring fresh to strong N winds and rough seas across the waters N of 25N between 128W and 135W by tonight. These marine conditions will persist on Sat. Large SW swell will affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days.