Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
803 WTNT34 KNHC 090857 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...ISAIAS STRENGTHENING... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION AS THE WEATHER WILL GO DOWNHILL QUICKLY TODAY.... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 88.0W ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS * East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 88.0 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Saturday. Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaias is likely to become a major hurricane this morning. Slight weakening is expected before landfall, but it is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dauphin Island, AL to Indian Pass, FL...5-7 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Yankeetown, FL to Egmont Key, FL...1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area tonight into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning in the next few hours. RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding is likely across the region, with considerable impacts possible across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. River flooding is also expected, some of which could be significant. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A tornado risk will begin late this afternoon and continue tonight in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far southwest Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday across parts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas. SURF: Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and will spread northward toward the Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.