Tropical Cyclone Discussion
802 WTPZ43 KNHC 090857 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Rachel's convective organization remains limited, with the deepest convection confined to the northern semicircle. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was T3.0/45 kt, which is in good agreement with the latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. Given these data and the limited convective organization, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt. Rachel has begun its anticipated northeastward turn over the past several hours, with an initial motion estimated at 045/3 kt. A northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as the cyclone interacts with a deepening mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States. Track guidance remains in good agreement and depicts Rachel moving ashore over the northern Baja California Peninsula late Saturday before continuing northeastward into the southwestern United States on Sunday. The latest NHC track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous prediction and lies close to the HCCA and GDMI aids. Despite the very dry and stable air and relatively cool sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, some of the dynamical guidance suggests that Rachel could maintain tropical storm strength through landfall this weekend. As Rachel accelerates northeastward and interacts with the deepening trough, increasing upper-level forcing and improving mid-level moisture could support intermittent bursts of deep convection. Although this interaction will also result in a significant increase in vertical wind shear, which should further disrupt the cyclone's tropical structure, some strengthening is possible during the next 24 to 36 hours. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows Rachel reaching 50 kt in 36 h before weakening as it moves inland. Rachel is expected to become post-tropical over the southwestern United States by 60 h and dissipate shortly thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction and lies near the middle to upper end of the guidance envelope. Given the potential for tropical-storm-force winds along portions of northern Baja California this weekend, a Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula will be likely later today. Key Messages: 1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of northern Baja California, Mexico, and the northern Gulf of California at tropical storm strength over the weekend, and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of this area later today. 2. Strong gusty winds associated with the remnants of Rachel are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, from this weekend into early next week. 3. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California Peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and the potential for flash and urban flooding. 4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding, through early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 22.7N 124.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 24.1N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 26.5N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 30.8N 116.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 35.3N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED