Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
827 AXNT20 KNHC 090457 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Isaias is centered near 25.4N 88.4W at 09/0300 UTC or 260 nm NNE of Progreso Mexico, moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is across the eastern Gulf between 83W-90W. Seas up to 32 ft are expected in the area of strongest winds. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday and make landfall within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and will spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands and extends along 26W, south of 19N moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between the W coast of Africa and 30W. A tropical wave is moving across the west-central Caribbean, with axis is along 78W, moving westward at around 15 kt. This wave is interacting with a broad upper-level low over the W Caribbean. At this time, scattered showers are noted across the northern half of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues westward to 1014 mb low near 12N33W to 12N40W. The ITCZ extends from 12N40W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough and E of 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Isaias. An old frontal boundary extends from the western Atlantic across central Florida and into the north-central Gulf waters to near 25N94W. Convection remains active along the frontal boundary. High pressure across the southeastern U.S. extends across the northern Gulf. The pressure gradient between this high and the front is forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds to the north of the front. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds per altimeter data. Elsewhere, fresh W to NW winds wrap cyclonically across the SW Gulf and into the western Yucatan, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will move to 27.1N 87.6W Fri morning, 29.9N 87.1W Fri evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.2N 87.3W Sat morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.1N 87.5W Sat evening, inland to 36.1N 86.1W Sun morning, and inland to 38.0N 83.0W Sun evening. Isaias will dissipate late Mon. Swells generated by the cyclone will spread northward across the basin central Gulf through Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker return flow over the western Gulf through midweek. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker return flow over the western Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient over the region is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the central and eastern portions of the basin while gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are over the western portion, except for fresh southeast to south winds north of 19N and west of 85W. As previously mentioned, a tropical wave with axis along 76W is generated scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the eastern and central Caribbean will continue over the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong speeds at night Fri through Sun. Hurricane Isaias over the central Gulf of America is producing fresh southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel and these winds will lift northward Fri. Meanwhile, a tropical wave near 78W is producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in the area. The wave will move across the western Caribbean tonight through the weekend while weakening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N65W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary. Moderate easterly winds are N of the front and W of 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail N of 28N between 59W and 66W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A 1018 mb high is centered near 27N58W, and extends a broad ridge westward to the Bahamas. Across the central Atlantic, a deep layered upper trough has induced a surface trough below it, and extends from 27N48W to 20N53W. This deep layered feature is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 20N and E of the trough axis to about 37W. A broad surface ridge, associated with the Azores High, dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with both the aforementioned surface trough and a dissipating cold front over NW Africa, is supporting fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas N of 20N and E of 44W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to weaken and the eastern portion will transition to a cold front tonight while its western portion will lift back N as a warm front on Sat. Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds off NE Florida late tonight as Hurricane Isaias will be tracking northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning. Otherwise, as high pressure moves into the western Atlantic, a tightening pressure gradient will support NE-E winds of fresh to locally strong speeds and rough seas behind a cold front over the eastern waters, mainly N of 25N, Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern coast early on Mon and move across the waters N of 29N through Tue night while it weakens.