Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
636 AXPZ20 KNHC 090326 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Hurricane Simon is centered near 15.6N 104.6W at 09/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 13N to 17N between 103W and 107W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 19N between 100W and 110W. Simon is expected to approach the west-central coast of Mexico as a major hurricane on Saturday. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 22.6N 125.5W at 09/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of center. Rachel's forward speed is expected to slow considerably, which will initiate its anticipated northeastward turn, followed by an increase in forward speed thereafter. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of northern Baja California, Mexico, and the northern Gulf of California at tropical storm strength over the weekend. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for flash and urban flooding. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding, through early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 08N86W to 11N97W, then resumes near 14N128W to beyond 11N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N E of 90W, from 06N to 16N between 99W and 100W, and from 00N to 10N between 120W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Simon. Outside of the areas impacted by Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 15.6N 104.6W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Simon will move to 16.1N 105.0W Fri morning, 16.9N 105.2W Fri evening, 17.8N 105.3W Sat morning, 19.0N 105.3W Sat evening, inland to 20.4N 105.3W Sun morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.6N 105.3W Sun evening. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 22.6N 125.5W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Rachel will move to 22.7N 125.3W Fri morning, 23.4N 124.0W Fri evening, 25.0N 121.2W Sat morning, 28.2N 118.3W Sat evening, 32.4N 115.7W Sun morning, and become post-tropical and move to 37.4N 112.6W Sun evening. Rachel will dissipate late Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N of 03N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 03N. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through the middle of next week. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Rachel. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail N of 15N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, will move to 22.7N 125.3W Fri morning, 23.4N 124.0W Fri evening, 25.0N 121.2W Sat morning, 28.2N 118.3W Sat evening, 32.4N 115.7W Sun morning, and become post-tropical and move to 37.4N 112.6W Sun evening. Rachel will dissipate late Mon. A tightening pressure gradient between Rachel and a ridge over the NW forecast area will bring fresh to strong N winds and rough seas across the waters N of 25N between 128W and 135W by Fri night. These marine conditions will persist on Sat. Large SW swell will affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days.