Tropical Cyclone Discussion
592 WTPZ43 KNHC 090245 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026 Rachel's deep convection is barely hanging on. While satellite imagery over the last few hours has shown some re-invigoration over the northeastern quadrant, Rachel has been primarily defined by weak and broken bands surrounding its inner core. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB gave Rachel a 2.5/3.5, reflecting a weakening trend, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS continue to trend downward. ASCAT data from around 1830 UTC also revealed max winds at around 43 kt. Given these data, Rachel's initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt. Initial motion was estimated at around 295/5 kt. Rachel's forward speed is expected to slow considerably as it is forecast to be picked up by a cutoff low descending from just off the coast of California. This will initiate its anticipated northeastward turn, followed by an increase in forward speed thereafter. What is complicating Rachel's track forecast is the interaction of a much broader trough that is forecast to dig down and envelop the western US over the weekend. Guidance seems to favor giving Rachel a more northerly component in its motion as it approaches northern Baja California as a result. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted once again to fall in line closer to HCCA and GDMI guidance, which now favors a leftward shift in the track as Rachel approaches land compared to the previous advisory. The environment surrounding Rachel continues to be characterized by dry mid-level air. Thus Rachel's convection is expected to keep dissipating, before interaction with the aforementioned low potentially reintroduces convection in the form of added instability aloft. This will come with the consequence of added vertical wind shear, however, which should result in Rachel's vortex further degrading. The latest NHC intensity forecast depicts further weakening through the next 24 hours, before leveling off thereafter to compensate for another potential burst of convection. Rachel, however, is still anticipated to become post-tropical either right around or shortly after landfall. It should be noted, however, that even as a post-tropical cyclone, Rachel is still capable of gusty winds and heavy rain along its path. Key Messages: 1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of northern Baja California, Mexico, and the northern Gulf of California at tropical storm strength over the weekend, and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of this area later tonight or tomorrow. 2. Strong gusty winds associated with the remnants of Rachel are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, from this weekend into early next week. 3. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for flash and urban flooding. 4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding, through early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 22.6N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 22.7N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 23.4N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 25.0N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 28.2N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 32.4N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 37.4N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED