Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
574 WTPZ33 KNHC 090244 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026 ...RACHEL EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 125.5W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in extreme northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, and Southern California should monitor the progress of Rachel. Tropical Storm Watches could be required for a portion of this area later tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 125.5 West. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the northeast is forecast to occur overnight tonight, along with an increase in forward speed thereafter. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, followed by a steady intensity thereafter until landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential of flash and urban flooding. RAINFALL: Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will also bring rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 inches across the higher terrain, across portions of the Southwest United States this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero. SURF: Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: The risk of tropical-storm-force winds is increasing for portions of northern Baja California through extreme northwestern Mexico this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Watch may be required for a portion of that area later tonight. Strong gusty winds associated with the system are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, from this weekend into early next week. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.