Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
247 AXNT20 KNHC 082304 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Isaias is centered near 24.4N 89.3W at 08/2100 UTC or 190 nm N of Progreso Mexico, moving NE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 32 ft (9.5 m) Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 25N to 28N between 85W and 90W. Isaias is moving toward the northeast. A turn toward the north is expected on Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula through this evening and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast Friday night. From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Across the coastal Carolinas, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with localized totals up to 8 inches are possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the remainder of the Southeast. Flash and urban flooding is likely across the region, with considerable impacts possible across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. River flooding is also expected, some of which could be significant. Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula today and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands and extends along 23W/24W, south of 19N moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 05N to 16N between the W coast of Africa and 28W. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis is along 76W, moving westward at around 15 kt. This wave is interacting with a broad upper-level low over the W Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over eastern Cuba, and parts of Hispaniola, and Jamaica as well as over the central Caribbean N of 15N between 72W and 80W. Similar convective activity is noted over the Cayman Islands and regional waters. This wave is also forcing moderate to locally fresh winds from 15N to the coast of Hispaniola, with gusty winds and rough seas likely in the areas of strong convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues westward to 12N30W to 11N45W. The ITCZ extends from 11NN45W to near Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N to 15N between 30W and 38W, and from 04N to 12N between 40W and 48W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Isaias. An old frontal boundary extends from the western Atlantic across central Florida and into the north-central Gulf waters to near 25N94W. Convection remains active along the frontal boundary. High pressure across the southeastern U.S. extends across the northern Gulf. The pressure gradient between this high and the front is forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds to the north of the front. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds per altimeter data. Elsewhere, fresh W to NW winds wrap cyclonically across the SW Gulf and into the western Yucatan, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will move to 25.7N 88.4W Fri morning, 28.2N 87.4W Fri afternoon, inland to 31.0N 87.2W Sat morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.2N 87.8W Sat afternoon, inland to 35.0N 87.8W Sun morning, and inland to 37.0N 85.0W Sun afternoon. Isaias will dissipate Mon afternoon. Swells generated by the cyclone will spread northward across the central Gulf through Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker return flow over the western Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient over the region is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the central and eastern portions of the basin while gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are over the western portion, except for fresh southeast to south winds north of 19N and west of 85W. As previously mentioned, a tropical wave with axis along 76W is generated scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean. For the forecast, the fresh winds will lift north through the Yucatan Channel and to the Gulf of America on Fri. A tropical wave is near 76W. This system will move across the western Caribbean tonight through the weekend while weakening. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast basin wide early next week, with pulse of fresh speeds between Hispaniola and South America. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located NE of Bermuda near 33N62W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary. Moderate easterly winds are N of the front and W of 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail N of 28N between 59W and 66W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A 1018 mb high is centered near 30N52W, and extends a broad ridge southwest to near 60W and then westward to the Bahamas. Across the central Atlantic, a deep layered upper trough has induced a surface trough below it, and extends from 29N46W to 20N51W. This deep layered feature is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 20N and E of the trough axis to about 38W. A broad surface ridge, associated with the Azores High, dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with both the aforementioned surface trough and a dissipating cold front over NW Africa, is supporting fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas N of 20N and E of 44W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary will weaken tonight. Its northern portion will transition to a cold front tonight while its western portion will lift back N as a warm front on Sat. Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds off NE Florida tonight as Hurricane Isaias will be tracking northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning. Otherwise, high pressure to the SE of Bermuda will shift westward on Fri, thus resulting in an increased pressure gradient and E to SE winds of moderate to fresh speeds S of 24N through Sun night. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern coast early on Mon and move across the waters N of 29N through Tue night while it further weakens.