Tropical Cyclone Discussion
591 WTPZ43 KNHC 082052 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026 The convection for Rachel has continue to slowly degrade as dry air continues to hinder the cyclone. The cloud tops have continued to warm and now the coldest cloud tops are around -45 C. While the most recent TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity estimate is still 4.0/65 kt, the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 32-60 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt for this advisory. The initial motion was estimated around 300/3 kt. The storm is being steered by high pressure located over the southwestern United States. In about 24 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough currently sweeping across the Pacific is expected to turn Rachel to the northeast and increase its forward speed. The track guidance has generally shifted towards the southeast with this advisory, therefore the current NHC forecast track has also shifted in that direction, favoring the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. Rachel is expected to continue to weaken during the next 12 to 24 hours due to cooling sea-surface temperatures and dry mid-level air. The wind shear is expected to continue increase as the trough moves closer to the storm, which may cause additional weakening, however Rachel is expected to be at tropical storm strength when it nears Baja California. The current NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, with some adjustments made based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. Rachel could lose tropical cyclone status as deep convection wanes, however simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest convection will return as it moves northwestward over warmer waters and is influenced by the approaching trough. Regardless of the status of Rachel on its approach to Baja California, heavy rainfall and tropical-storm-force winds are expected over portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwest United States. Key Messages: 1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of northern Baja California, Mexico, and the northern Gulf of California at tropical storm strength over the weekend, and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of this area by tonight. 2. Strong gusty winds associated with the remnants of Rachel are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, from this weekend into early next week. 3. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for flash and urban flooding. 4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding, through early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 22.4N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 22.6N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 24.0N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 26.2N 119.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 30.2N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 33.3N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED