Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
424 WTPZ35 KNHC 081735 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Simon Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 1200 PM CST Thu Oct 08 2026 ...OUTER BANDS BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...SIMON FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 103.8W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Punta Mita A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches or warning could be required for portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 103.8 West. Simon is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) followed by a turn toward the north-northwest or north on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Simon is expected to become a hurricane later today and a very dangerous category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Friday. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals between 15 and 25 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through Sunday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is possible along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.