Tropical Cyclone Discussion
171 WTPZ43 KNHC 081446 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026 Rachel's satellite presentation continues to slowly degrade as dry air continues to affect the cyclone. The coldest cloud tops are around -50 C. The most recent TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity estimate is still a 4.0/65 kt, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 33-56 kt. Based on the available data, the initial intensity has been held at 60 kt for this advisory. The initial motion was estimated at 300/6 kt. The cyclone is still being steered by the high pressure anchored over the southwestern United States. In about a day or so, a mid- to upper-level trough currently sweeping across the Pacific is expected to turn Rachel to the northeast and increase the forward speed of the storm as well. The spread in the track guidance has decreased, so there is a bit more confidence in the track forecast. The current NHC track is mostly the same as the track prior, only a few minor adjustments to the east have been made based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. The gradual weakening tread for Rachel is expected to continue as the storm continues to move through an environment characterized by cooling sea-surface temperatures and dry mid-level air. Wind shear is expected to increase over Rachel as the previously mentioned trough approaches the system, which will help to weaken the storm further. However, the sea-surface temperatures are warmer than normal for the waters near California and Baja California and the interaction of the trough could help foster the growth of convection as well. There is still a high degree of uncertainty on if Rachel will be a tropical or post-tropical system as it approaches northern Baja California and southern California. Regardless, the cyclone is expected to produce heavy rainfall and tropical-storm-force winds. The current NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of extreme northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, and Southern California at tropical storm strength over the weekend, potentially bringing strong winds and coastal flooding to portions of those areas. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of this area by tonight. Gusty winds are likely to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States into early next week. 2. Moisture associated with Rachel will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and a threat of flash and urban flooding. 3. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 22.1N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 22.4N 124.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 22.7N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 23.4N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 25.1N 121.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 28.4N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 32.8N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/1200Z 42.4N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED