Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
439 WTPZ35 KNHC 081135 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Simon Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 600 AM CST Thu Oct 08 2026 ...SIMON'S OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 103.3W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches could be required for portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 103.3 West. Simon is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest to north-northwest on Friday. Simon should turn toward the north Friday night and approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Simon is expected to become a major hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area early Friday. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals between 15 and 25 inches possible across portions of Colima and Michoacan through Sunday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.