Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
157 AXNT20 KNHC 081043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Isaias is centered near 23.3N 91.2W at 08/0900 UTC or 150 nm NW of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft (6 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 21N to 28N between 85W and 93W. Scattered moderate convection in spiral rainbands are also in the SW Gulf. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula later today and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a strong hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night. Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning later today and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 22W, extending from 05N-20N, moving westward around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 05N to 20N between the W coast of Africa and 24W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with an axis near 73W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of 20N, across Hispaniola, and between 70W and 76W. This wave is also forcing moderate to locally fresh winds over Hispaniola adjacent waters with gusty winds and rough seas likely in the areas of strong convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to 13N32W to 08N48W. The ITCZ extends from 08N48W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 15N between 27W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Isaias. Hurricane Isaias is near 23.3N 91.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving east-northeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Otherwise, a weakening stationary front is over the NE Gulf, extending from the Tampa Bay region to 27N86W. This frontal boundary forecast to dissipate later today, is generating scattered showers to the NE basin. For the forecast, Isaias will move to 24.2N 90.0W this afternoon, 25.9N 88.6W Fri morning, 28.4N 87.6W Fri afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.0N 87.6W Sat morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.7N 88.5W Sat afternoon, and inland to 36.0N 88.7W Sun morning. Isaias will dissipate early Mon. Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning later today and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening, providing moderate or weaker return flow through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate or weaker winds are across the Caribbean W of 75W along with slight seas due to a weak gradient of pressure associated with Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf and a front across the offshore waters N of the Bahamas. Over the central basin, a tropical wave is generating scattered heavy showers and tstms over the central Caribbean, being the strongest convection over Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Gusty winds and rough seas are likely ongoing in the area of strongest convection. Over the E basin, moderate to locally fresh SE winds are present along with moderate seas being supported by high pressure centered to the SE of Bermuda. For the forecast, Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf of America, and a frontal boundary N of the Bahamas will maintain a weak pressure gradient over the NW and SW Caribbean, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas through tonight. Moderate to fresh trades in the central and eastern basin will prevail through Mon as high pressure to the SE of Bermuda slowly drifts westward through Fri evening before dissipating over the weekend. As a result, winds are forecast to briefly reach moderate to fresh speeds over the NW Caribbean on Fri. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast basin-wide by late Mon as a cold front moves across the offshore waters N of the Bahamas acting to reduce the pressure gradient over the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N70W to Stuart, Florida, generating scattered showers across the offshore waters N of 27N and W of 55W. To the SE of Bermuda, a 1017 mb high prevails near 28N54W. Farther east, a surface trough extending from 29N39W to 20N51W is generating scattered showers and tstms N of 20N between 33W and 49W. Finally, surface ridging associated with the Azores High dominate the E subtropical Atlantic waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with both the aforementioned surface trough and a cold front entering NW Africa, is supporting fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas N of 20N and E of 40W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will weaken today and dissipate tonight while the portion of the front N of 30N transitions to a cold front that moves past Bermuda by this evening. Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds off NE Florida tonight as Hurricane Isaias continue to track northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning. Otherwise, high pressure to the SE of Bermuda will shift westward on Fri, thus resulting in an increased pressure gradient and ESE winds of moderate to fresh speeds S of 24N through Sun night. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to come off the NE coast of Florida early on Mon and move across the offshores N of 29N through midweek.