Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
637 AXNT20 KNHC 080550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Isaias is centered near 23.1N 91.7W at 08/0600 UTC or 160 nm NW of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft (6 m), with seas in excess of 13 ft (4 m) extending out 30 nm in the northern semicircle and 45 nm in the southern semicircle of Isaias. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 21N to 27N between 85W and 94W. A continued east- northeastward motion is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north later today and Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula later today and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a strong hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night. Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning later today and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 21W, extending from 05N-20N, moving westward around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection follows this wave, from 04N to 19N and E of 22W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 06N to 12N between 22W and 28W. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean with an axis near 72W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen S of 21N between 66W and 74W. This wave is also forcing moderate to locally fresh winds over the northeast Caribbean and southern Puerto Rico adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends to 09N20W, then 11N25W, then 10N30W, then to a 1013 mb low near 12N37W, and then ends near 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the 1013 mb low. Scattered showers are also occurring along and near these features to the W of the low. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Isaias. Besides Hurricane Isaias, a 1007 mb low is centered over the north- central basin near 27N86W, and a stationary front extends eastward through the central Florida Peninsula, and a pair of troughs extend south and southwestward from the low. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted north of these features, and 4 to 7 ft seas are occurring as observed by recent buoy data. Across the southeastern Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will move to near 23.4N 90.7W Thu morning, 24.7N 89.1W Thu evening, 26.8N 87.9W Fri morning, 29.6N 87.3W Fri evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.5N 87.5W Sat morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 35.1N 88.0W Sat evening. Isaias will dissipate late Sun. Swells from Isaias are expected to spread across the most of the northern and central Gulf portions through Fri night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will be over the basin into early next week. Otherwise, a stationary front along the NE Gulf will gradually weaken through Thu morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh SE to NE winds are occurring in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in this region. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas, as noted on recent buoy and altimeter satellite data. For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin through early Thu morning. Afterward, high pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speeds Fri. These trades will change little then be at mostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Mon, then may diminish some late Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold extends from near 31N73W to inland central Florida near Stuart. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail north of this front, with 6 to 8 ft seas in the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near these features, west of 59W and north of 25N. Farther east in the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 29N37W to 21N49W, and scattered showers and storms to the east are likely producing gusty winds and rough seas. Finally over the eastern Atlantic, the Azores high dominates, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas E of 35W, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold extends from near 31N70W to 30N73W and becomes stationary to inland Florida near Stuart. The cold front will weaken past Bermuda late Thu before dissipating Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through this evening. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida by Fri morning as Tropical Cyclone Isaias tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning. Winds E of northern Florida become W to NW at moderate speeds early next week behind a weak cold front.