Tropical Cyclone Discussion
385 WTPZ43 KNHC 080257 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 07 2026 Infrared satellite imagery over the last 24 hours suggest that Rachel's deep convection is weakening. In fact, IR imagery depicts convection around the cyclone is a bit more narrow, with a dry slot on the northwestern quadrant, rather than the shield of deep convection over the inner core seen the previous night. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB also appears to follow this weakening trend, having estimated Rachel's intensity at 4.0/65 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity was lowered slightly to 65 kt. The initial motion was estimated at 290/6 kt. Rachel continues to be steered by high pressure anchored over the western US. However, global forecast models depict Rachel's trajectory turning to the northeast later this week as it is picked up by a mid- to upper-level trough sweeping across the Pacific. As Rachel makes this turn, its forward speed will slow, before accelerating as it follows the trough toward northern Baja California and the southwestern U.S. Track guidance continues to exhibit a fair amount of spread in depicting where Rachel will ultimately reach land, complicated by the speed at which the storm makes its forecast northeastward turn. The latest NHC track forecast has shifted slightly to the right, in an effort to better capture the blend between GDMI and HCCA guidance, which depicts a slower, sharper turn and thus a track slightly to the south of the previous advisory. Rachel's convection is expected to erode further as it enters an environment of cooler sea-surface temperatures and dry mid-level air as diagnosed by SHIPS guidance. Once the aforementioned trough interacts with the storm, vertical wind shear is also expected to increase substantially as well. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast hastens Rachel's weakening trend slightly, but remains on the upper end of the guidance envelope initially to account for Rachel's recent resilience. Thereafter, vertical wind shear is expected to strip the remaining convection within the storm, and Rachel is forecast to become post-tropical as it moves inland over the Baja California peninsula by 96 hours. It should be noted, however, that tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain could still accompany what remains of Rachel's circulation even if its convection erodes by the time it impacts land. Key Messages: 1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of extreme northern Baja California and Southern California at tropical storm strength over the weekend, potentially bringing strong winds and coastal flooding to portions of those areas. Gusty winds could spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States into early next week. 2. Moisture associated with Rachel will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and a threat of flash and urban flooding. 3. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 21.4N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 22.6N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 23.3N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 24.9N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 28.0N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 36.4N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED