Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
247 WTNT34 KNHC 080251 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 ...ISAIAS NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 91.9W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida. The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from west of Ocean Springs to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line in Louisiana, and east of the Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, Florida. The remainder of the Hurricane Watch has been replaced with the Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River, FL A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS * East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, FL A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and elsewhere along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 91.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued east-northeastward motion is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane soon, continue strengthening through early Friday, and remain a strong hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL...5-7 ft Mobile Bay...5-7 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas on Friday and Friday night. Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through Thursday across coastal portions of the eastern Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of Campeche and western Yucatan. From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible Friday night in coastal areas of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The tornado threat will persist into Saturday for eastern Alabama, western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.