Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
894 WTPZ35 KNHC 080233 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Simon Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 900 PM CST Wed Oct 07 2026 ...SIMON FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 102.5W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Watches will likely be required for a portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico later tonight into Thursday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.5 West. Simon is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Simon is expected to remain south of Mexico through Friday, but approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Simon is expected to become a major hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals between 15 and 25 inches possible across portions of Colima and Michoacan through Sunday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.