Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
459 AXNT20 KNHC 072253 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 22.7N 92.9W at 07/2100 UTC or 200 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 19N to 26N between 89W and 94W. A continued east-northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday morning, with further strengthening expected through Friday morning. Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 21W, extending from 05N-20N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 06N to 14N between 16W and 23W. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean with an axis near 71W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 65W and 69W. This wave is also forcing moderate to locally fresh winds over the northeast Caribbean and southern Puerto Rico adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W and extends to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 09N56W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 16N between 24W and 33W, and from 08N to 10N between 45W and 48W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Isaias. Besides Tropical Storm Isaias, a 1008 mb low is centered over the north-central basin near 27N86W, and a stationary front extends eastward through the central Florida Peninsula, and a trough extends southwestward from the low to 25N93W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted north of these features, and 4 to 6 ft seas are occurring as observed by recent buoy data. Across the southeastern Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Isaias will strengthen to a hurricane near 23.1N 91.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt and continue to strengthen as it moves to near 24.1N 90.1W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, then move to near 25.8N 88.7W late Thu night, to near 28.1N 87.6W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt. Isaias is forecast to move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.0N 87.3W Sat morning, and weaken further far inland through Sun. Swells from Isaias are expected to spread across the most of the northern and central Gulf portions through Fri night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will be over the basin into early next week. Otherwise, a stationary front along the north- central and NE Gulf will gradually weaken through Thu morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh SE to NE winds are occurring in the eastern Caribbean near a tropical wave axis near 71W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in this region. In addition, convection near the tropical wave is likely producing gusty winds and rough seas. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas, as noted on recent buoy and altimeter satellite data. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection is occurring in the south-central Caribbean near the eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin through early Thu morning. Afterward, high pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speeds Fri. These trades will change little through then be at mostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Mon, then may diminish some late Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold extends from near 31N76W to 28N78W and becomes stationary to inland central Florida near Melbourne. Fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail north of this front, with 6 to 8 ft seas in the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near these features, west of 59W and north of 27N. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 27N42W to 23N47W, and scattered showers and storms to the east are likely producing gusty winds and rough seas. An additional surface trough, from 30N36W to 31N38W, is leading to moderate or weaker winds. Finally over the eastern Atlantic, the Azores high dominates, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas E of 40W. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken past Bermuda late Thu before dissipating Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through this evening. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida by Fri morning as Tropical Cyclone Isaias tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning. Winds E of northern Florida become W to NW at moderate speeds early next week behind a weak cold front.