Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
627 AXNT20 KNHC 071633 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 22.4N 93.6W at 07/1500 UTC or 230 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 19N to 26N between 89W and 94W. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next day or two, and Isaias is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 20W, extending from 05N-20N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 06N to 14N between 16W and 23W. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean with an axis near 68.5W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 65W and 69W. This wave is also forcing moderate to locally fresh winds over the northeast Caribbean and southern Puerto Rico adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to 07N20W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 09N56W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 16N between 24W and 33W, and from 08N to 10N between 45W and 48W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Isaias. Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 22.4N 93.6W at 07/1500 UTC or 230 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Elsewhere, a 1008 mb low is centered over the north-central basin near 27.5N86.5W, and a stationary front extends eastward through the central Florida Peninsula, and a trough extends southwestward from the low to 25N93W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted north of these features on recent scatterometer data, and 4 to 6 ft seas are occurring as observed by recent buoy data. Across the southeastern Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, Isaias will move to near 22.7N 92.4W this evening with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, strengthen to a hurricane near 23.4N 90.8W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, and continue to strengthen as it nears 24.6N 89.2W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, then move to near 26.6N 88.1W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt, move to near 29.2N 87.5W Fri evening, then inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.2N 87.6W Sat morning. Isaias will weaken to a tropical depression while moving farther inland to near 38.0N 87.5W early on Sun. Swells from Isaias are expected to spread across most of the northern and central Gulf portions through Fri night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will be over the basin. Otherwise, a stationary front along the north-central and NE Gulf will gradually weaken through this evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh SE to NE winds are occurring in the eastern Caribbean near a tropical wave axis near 68.5W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in this region. In addition, convection near the tropical wave is likely producing gusty winds and rough seas. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas, as noted on recent buoy and altimeter satellite data. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection is occurring in the south-central Caribbean near the eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin through early Thu morning. Afterward, high pressure is forecast to redevelop to the southeast of Bermuda, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speeds Fri. These trades will then be at mostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N74.5W southwestward to the central Florida coast, and a pre-frontal trough is noted to the southeast. Fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail north of this front, with 6 to 8 ft seas in the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near these features, west of 59W and north of 27N. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 27N44W to 22N48W, and scattered showers and storms to the east are likely producing gusty winds and rough seas. An additional surface trough, from 29N38W to 31N40W, is leading to moderate or weaker winds. Finally over the eastern Atlantic, the Azores high dominates, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas E of 40W. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will transition to a slow moving cold front today, then weaken past Bermuda late Thu before dissipating Thu night. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off northeast Florida through this evening. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing southeast of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades south of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off northeast Florida by Fri morning as Tropical Cyclone Isaias tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the southeast at fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning.