Hurricane Local Statement
938
WTUS82 KTAE 071527
HLSTAE
FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-072330-
Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL092026
1127 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 /1027 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026/
This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia
**HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR STRENGTHENING ISAIAS**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch have been issued for
Coastal Bay, Coastal Gulf, and South Walton
- A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued
for Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, and Coastal Wakulla
- A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Coastal Dixie and
Coastal Taylor
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Coastal Bay, Coastal Gulf, and South Walton
- A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, and Coastal Wakulla
- A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Coastal Dixie and Coastal
Taylor
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 720 miles southwest of Panama City or about 730 miles
southwest of Apalachicola
- 22.4N 93.6W
- Storm Intensity 45 mph
- Movement East-northeast or 70 degrees at 8 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
...ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
LATE THIS WEEK...
At 11 AM ET, Tropical Storm Isaias was still located in the Bay of
Campeche and moving ENE at 8 mph. Isaias is forecast to turn northward
in the next day or so and accelerate in forward speed towards the
central Gulf coast. Steady strengthening is expected through much of the
next couple of days, although some weakening may be possible just before
landfall. The wind field is expected to expand considerably and may be
lopsided towards the east, leading to windier conditions for portions of
our area. There is still considerable uncertainty with both timing and
track. Conditions could begin to deteriorate across the Panhandle as
early as Friday morning.
Given the expected large size of Isaias, the wind threat may extend well
into the eastern portions of our area. An expected fast forward speed
may also lead to the wind threat extending further inland. Storm surge
will be possible along our whole coastline including the Panhandle and
Apalachee Bay. Inundation values of 5 to 7 feet above ground level (AGL)
are possible across the coastal Panhandle to Indian Pass, 3 to 5 feet AGL
from Indian Pass to the Aucilla River, and 2 to 4 feet AGL from the
Aucilla River to Yankeetown.
Soggy conditions across the region from recent rainfall will make the area
more sensitive to flooding from additional heavy rainfall from Isaias.
Forecast rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches is expected across much of the
area, with isolated amounts near 10 inches possible. If realized, these
values would likely cause at least isolated flash flooding and some river
flooding. It is too soon to determine exact tornado impacts, if any, but
a few cannot be ruled out at this time.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the FL Panhandle. Potential
impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and
the Florida Big Bend.
* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts
across the coastal Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.
* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
the Florida Panhandle. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.
Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Big Bend and Southeast Alabama.
Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.
* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across eastern
Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and
southwestern Georgia.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.
If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the Gulf of America or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or
poor drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.
Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.
When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.
Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.
Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.
If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If
staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to
area visitors.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
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The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 5 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.