Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
073 AXNT20 KNHC 071108 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nine has intensified into Tropical Storm Isaias, which is centered near 22.0N 94.1W at 07/0900 UTC or 250 nm W of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 10 to 11 ft. Numerous strong convection extends from 20N to 26N between 90W and 96W. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next day or two, and Isaias is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 19W, extending from 05N-20N. Scattered moderate convection extends from 07N to 16N between 17W and 23W. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean with an axis near 67W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 63W and 69W. This wave is also forcing fresh to locally strong winds over the NE Caribbean and southern Puerto Rico adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to 14N26W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 08N50W to 11N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 17N between 23W and 37W, and from 07N to 10N between 36W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Isaias. Tropical Storm Isaias is near 22.0N 94.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving east-northeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Aside from the cyclone, a stationary front extends from N of Tampa Bay to a 1008 mb low near 27N86W where it starts to dissipate. The front is generating scattered to isolated showers across the northern Gulf. Northeast fresh to strong winds are behind the front over the NE Gulf while moderate to locally fresh NE winds are across the NW offshores. Seas are slight to moderate with this frontal boundary. For the forecast, Isaias will move to 22.2N 92.9W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 22.7N 91.4W Thu morning, 23.9N 89.7W Thu afternoon, 25.5N 88.5W Fri morning, 27.7N 87.7W Fri afternoon, and inland to 30.8N 87.7W Sat morning. Isaias will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 38.2N 87.5W early Sun. Otherwise, a stationary front along the north- central and NE Gulf will gradually weaken through this evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the eastern Caribbean. The presence of a frontal boundary N of the Bahamas and Tropical Storm Isaias in the Gulf of America maintain a weak pressure gradient over the western and central Caribbean along with slight to moderate seas. Over the E basin, the passage of a tropical wave, currently moving across the Mona Passage just to the W of Puerto Rico, is supporting moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas. Gusty winds and rough seas are possible in the vicinity of the wave due to the strong convection. For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin through early Thu morning. Afterward, high pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speeds Fri. These trades will then be at mostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N68W to a 1010 mb low near 30N78W to Cape Canaveral. Scattered heavy showers are occuring across the offshores N of 27N from the coast of Florida to nearly 60W. Ahead of the front, a 1017 mb high prevails to the SE of Bermuda, which is supporting moderate or weaker winds over the subtropical waters W of 40W. However, winds N of the frontal boundary are fresh to strong and seas are moderate to rough. A pair of troughs are in the central subtropical Atlantic waters generating scattered moderate convection and tstms. Finally over the E Atlantic, the Azores high dominates, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas E of 40W. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will transition to a slow moving cold front today, then weaken past Bermuda late Thu before dissipating Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through this evening. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida by Fri morning as Tropical Storm Isaias tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE early on Sat before weakening by Sun morning.