Tropical Cyclone Discussion

819
WTPZ43 KNHC 070900
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM PDT Wed Oct 07 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Rachel's convective organization
has changed little over the past several hours. The deepest
convection remains focused over the southern semicircle, with
limited convection over the northern portion of the cyclone due to
dry air intrusions and modest easterly shear. A 0426 UTC MetOp-B
scatterometer pass helped refine the wind radii and structure of the
cyclone. Based on these data and the largely unchanged satellite
presentation, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt.
 
The initial motion continues westward, or 275/6 kt. Rachel continues
to be steered by high pressure anchored over the western United
States. However, by the end of the week, a large mid- to upper-level
trough is forecast to approach from the northwest, causing Rachel to
slow down before turning sharply northeastward and accelerating as
it moves toward Baja California and southern California. The updated
track forecast is unchanged through 48 h, but nudges slightly north
of the previous advisory late in the period, following the corrected
consensus (HCCA) aid.
 
Rachel is anticipated to gradually weaken as it tracks through an 
unfavorable environment of cooler SSTs and limited moisture. By 72 
h, Rachel is forecast to experience strong northeasterly vertical 
wind shear driven heavily by the aforementioned trough, expediting 
the storm's weakening trend. Rachel is forecast to become 
post-tropical by 96 h and dissipate shortly after moving inland by 
120 h. Even after the system dissipates, its remnants could still 
contribute to heavy rain and gusty winds across the Southwestern 
United States. The updated NHC intensity forecast is largely 
unchanged from the previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 20.6N 121.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 21.1N 122.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 21.7N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 22.2N 124.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 22.5N 125.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 22.9N 124.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 24.1N 123.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 29.2N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED