Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
222 WTNT34 KNHC 070254 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 95.0W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.0 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). An east-northwestward motion is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches through Thursday across coastal portions of the Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of Campeche and western Yucatan. From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. SURF: Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.