Tropical Cyclone Discussion

862
WTPZ43 KNHC 070235
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Convective coverage has expanded somewhat across Rachel's northern 
semicircle. However, the storm's deepest convection remains 
concentrated across its southern half, indicative of northeasterly 
shear entraining dry air into the northern portion of the cyclone. 
The subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimate from TAFB was 
4.5/77 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 70 to 
75 kt. Given these intensity estimates and very little change in the 
overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 70 
kt.
 
The initial motion was estimated at 285/5 kt. Rachel continues to
be steered by high pressure anchored over the western United States.
However, by the end of the week, a large mid- to upper-level trough
is forecast to approach from the northwest, causing Rachel to slow
down before turning sharply northeastward. The system should then
gain forward speed as it moves toward Baja California and southern
California. Little change was made to the latest NHC track forecast,
other than to adjust it slightly toward the HCCA guidance.

The environment ahead of Rachel is expected to remain hostile, 
defined by dry mid-level air and cooling SSTs. Once Rachel makes 
its forecasted turn to the northeast, vertical wind shear is 
expected to increase as well, driven heavily by the aforementioned 
trough. As a result, steady weakening is expected to continue, and 
Rachel is forecast to become post-tropical by Saturday. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous 
advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 20.4N 120.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 20.8N 121.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 21.4N 122.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 21.9N 123.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 22.3N 124.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 22.5N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 23.1N 124.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 25.6N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  12/0000Z 29.6N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL