Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
792 AXNT20 KNHC 062247 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 22.1N 95.6W at 06/2100 UTC or 330 NM W of Progreso Mexico, moving E at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt and peak seas of 11 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N-27N between 92W-98W. An east to east- northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days. By Friday, a turn to the northeast is anticipated. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Nine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A strong tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with an axis near 65W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-17N between 60W-66W. A tropical wave in the E Atlantic is near 19W, extending from 06N-16N. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along coastal Senegal near 13N17W and extends to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 10N60W. Isolated moderate convection is evident from 09N-14N between 24W-41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Depression Nine. Aside from Tropical Depression Nine, a stationary front is drapped across the northern Gulf from coastal Florida peninsula at 27N83W to 28N97W to 24N98W. Winds behind the front are moderate to fresh northeasterlies with seas 3-6 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 25N-29N between 81W-86W. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nine will strengthen to a tropical storm near 22.1N 95.0W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, will track to near 22.6N 93.4W Wed afternoon, to near 23.1N 91.8W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.2N 90.1W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt, then track to near 25.9N 88.8W late Thu night and to near 28.5N 88.3W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Nine is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression while moving well inland near 34.0N 88.7W Sat afternoon. Long-period swells generated by the tropical cyclone will spread across most of the basin through early Sun. Atlantic high pressure will build southwestward toward the eastern Gulf in the wake of Nine. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will follow a trough along the E Mexican offshores through Wed night. Weak surface ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward this evening ahead of a stationary front over the norther Gulf. The front will gradually weaken Wed and Wed night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas are N of the front over the NE Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High to the north and an 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing only gentle to moderate trades with seas 2-6 ft over the Caribbean this afternoon. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-17N between 60W-66W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean south of 12N and west of 78W. For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri. These trades will then be at mostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1011 mb low at 30N79W is slowly dragging a cold front that extends to 28N81W along the Florida peninsula. Winds north of the front are NE strong with seas 6-8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 28N-31N west of 69W. Elsewhere a pair of weak surface troughs - from 22N47W to 27N46W and from 25N37N to 31N38W - are interacting with an upper-level low to cause isolated moderate convection from 25N-28N between 33W-46W. The remainder of the tropical North Atlantic only has winds gentle to moderate with seas 3-6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 31N74W to 30N79W and to inland Florida near Melbourne will begin to slowly move eastward across the area tonight as a cold front, then stall from Bermuda to NE Florida tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as newly formed Tropical Cyclone Nine tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE Sat night through Sun night while weakening.