Tropical Cyclone Discussion

309
WTPZ43 KNHC 061446
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2026
 
Satellite imagery this morning shows that Rachel's inner core has 
degraded, with the system now featuring a large, ragged eye. The 
deepest cold convection is confined mainly to the southern eyewall 
as the cyclone continues to encounter northeasterly wind shear and a 
drier mid-level environment. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimate from TAFB held steady at T4.5/77 kt, while objective 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range between 77 and 82 kt. Based 
on these satellite trends and intensity estimates, the initial 
intensity is held at 75 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is westward, or 275/7 kt. A general west to 
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days 
while the system is steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. In 
a few days, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to approach the 
west coast of the United States, which will weaken the ridge. This 
should cause Rachel to slow down, make a sharp turn toward the 
northeast, and increase in forward speed. The latest NHC track 
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains in 
good agreement with the HCCA and Google DeepMind aids.

The surrounding environment is starting to take its toll on Rachel, 
with a drier, more stable airmass and moderate northeasterly wind 
shear. Sea surface temperatures along the forecast track will also 
cool below 26C in about a day or so, which should induce a steady 
weakening trend. Simulated infrared imagery from the global models 
shows Rachel struggling to produce deep, organized convection later 
this week. As a result, the latest NHC forecast now indicates that 
Rachel will become a post-tropical cyclone by 96 h. The official NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, with gradual 
weakening near the upper end of the guidance suite in the short 
term, and then a faster weakening trend toward the consensus aids at 
the end of the period.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 20.5N 119.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 20.6N 120.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 21.0N 121.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 22.0N 124.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 22.4N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 22.8N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 24.2N 123.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  11/1200Z 27.7N 119.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL