Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

851
ABPZ20 KNHC 061133
TWOEP 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Rachel, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 
South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm coverage has been increasing in association 
with a broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the 
next day or two while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to 
northwestward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected 
across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next 
few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should 
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
South of Guatemala:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of 
Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for some gradual development of this system thereafter while it 
moves generally west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.