Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
909 AXNT20 KNHC 061058 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92): Gradual development of a low near Tampico, Mexico is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. Regardless of development, fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 20N to 25N between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere in the Bay of Campeche. Chances of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours are high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis near 63W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 58W and 64W. The wave is also enhancing fresh to strong E winds across the central Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to 12N30W to 07N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N44W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 16N between 16W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Invest AL92. A weak cold front extends from Cape Canaveral to just N of Tampa Bay where it stalls to a 1010 mb low near 29N86W to 28N94W to 25N97W. A surface trough then continues from the tail of the front along the E Mexico offshores to Invest AL92 low to the Bay of Campeche. Observations across the northern Gulf coastal waters depict fresh to strong NE winds N of the front and slight to moderate seas. Strong convection in the vicinity of AL92 suggest stronger gusty winds and rough seas are likely. Elsewhere, ahead of these boundaries, winds are moderate or weaker, and seas slight to moderate. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a trough along the E Mexican offshores through today. Weak surface ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late today ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf through Wed before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual development of a low NE of Tampico is becoming more likely, and a a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. Regardless of development, fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. Mariners should monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail in the northwest and central Caribbean being supported by weak 1017 mb high to the SE of Bermuda. Moderate to fresh winds are also in the far E basin due to the passage of a tropical wave that is bringing showers and isolated tstms to the central Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters. Middle level diffluent flow is generating scattered showers in the Windward Passage. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers are offshore Panama associated with the E extension of the Pacific monsoon. For the forecast, weak ridging SE of Bermuda will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central Caribbean through this morning. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly winds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri, then moderate to fresh Fri night through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stalls near 30N73W and extends to 30N79W where it transitions to a cold front that extends to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstms along with fresh NE winds are behind the front. Weak surface ridging dominates the remainder subtropical waters, providing moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front will transition to a cold front and move slowly E over the area today, then stall from Bermuda to NE Florida tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as a low pressure, possible tropical cyclone, moves northward across the Gulf of America.