Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

377
AXPZ20 KNHC 060844
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0835 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.3N 118.6W at 06/0900 UTC, 
moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. 
Peak seas are near 30 ft (9.5 M). Numerous moderate to scattered 
strong convection is observed from 17N to 22N and between 115W 
and 121W. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected 
during the next few days. Gradual weakening is forecast during 
the next 48 hours. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to 
affect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and portions of
southern California for the next several days. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
South of Southern Mexico (Invest 92E): A broad area of low
pressure located offshore of southern Mexico is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. 
Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor 
the progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of
formation in the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 15N100W, and from 
11N118W to beyond 12N140W. Isolated to scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection east of 113W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on 
Hurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico, and
Invest 92E off southern Mexico. 
Outside of the impacts directly associated with Hurricane Rachel,
moderate or weaker winds and rough to very rough seas are found 
in the remainder of the Baja California offshore waters.
Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
occurring south of Mexico due to the developing low pressure
system in the area. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.4N 119.6W this afternoon, 
20.7N 120.8W Wed morning, 21.2N 122.1W Wed afternoon, weaken to a 
tropical storm near 21.8N 123.4W Thu morning, 22.2N 124.7W Thu 
afternoon, and 22.6N 125.6W Fri morning. Rachel will change little 
in intensity as it moves to the 23.7N 124.2W early Sat. Seas will 
continue to subside across the offshore waters of Baja California 
Sur today as Rachel continues to slowly move away from the area. 
Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located offshore of 
southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple 
of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to 
northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico 
should monitor the progress of this system.The disturbance has a 
high chance of formation in the next 48 hours and the next 7 days. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A weak pressure gradient across the basin allows for light to 
gentle winds and mainly moderate seas north of 02N. Moderate to 
locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass showed fresh SW winds off southern Ecuador. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the offshore waters 
of Central America producing gusty winds and higher seas.
For the forecast, weak high pressure centered north of the area will 
maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters of 
Central America and Colombia, along with mostly moderate seas 
through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh southerly 
winds and moderate seas will persist between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands over the next several days. Winds and seas may 
increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador 
late this week as Invest 92E becomes better organized south of 
Mexico.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico.
Outside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, high pressure 
dominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting 
moderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate seas. However, a cross 
equatorial southerly swell support seas to 8 ft in the southern 
waters, south of 02N and east of 102W.
For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.3N 118.6W at 2 AM
PDT, and is moving west at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 
kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 976 
mb. Rachel will move to 20.4N 119.6W this afternoon, 20.7N 120.8W
Wed morning, 21.2N 122.1W Wed afternoon, weaken to a tropical 
storm near 21.8N 123.4W Thu morning, 22.2N 124.7W Thu afternoon, 
and 22.6N 125.6W Fri morning. Rachel will change little in 
intensity as it moves to the 23.7N 124.2W early Sat. Farther 
south, long-period SW swell will reach as far as 05N between 95W
and 125W through at least this weekend. Looking ahead, winds may
increase and seas build over the waters north of 10N and east of
110W later this week as Invest 92E becomes better organized.