Tropical Cyclone Discussion

188
WTPZ43 KNHC 060840
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Rachel's convective structure has 
degraded over the past several hours. The eye has become obscured, 
while the surrounding deep convection has weakened, particularly 
over the western semicircle. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimate from TAFB was T4.5/77 kt, which is in good agreement with 
the latest objective estimates. Given these data and the continued 
degraded satellite presentation, the initial intensity is lowered to 
75 kt.

The initial motion is westward, or 270/7 kt. A westward to 
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days while 
a subtropical ridge remains the primary steering feature. By late 
this week and into the weekend, the ridge is forecast to weaken as a 
mid- to upper-level trough amplifies near the west coast of the 
United States. This pattern change should cause Rachel to slow down, 
turn sharply northeastward, and accelerate toward the Baja 
California Peninsula late in the forecast period. The latest NHC 
track forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and lies 
near the HCCA and GDMI aids.

Drier and more stable air, along with moderate easterly vertical 
wind shear, have begun to take a toll on Rachel's convective 
structure. These factors, combined with progressively cooler sea 
surface temperatures along the forecast track, should result in a 
steady weakening trend through the forecast period. Simulated 
satellite imagery from the global models supports this scenario, 
showing Rachel struggling to maintain deep convection later this 
week and into the weekend. As a result, Rachel is forecast to become 
post-tropical by day 5 as it accelerates toward the northern Baja 
California Peninsula. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very 
similar to the previous prediction, with only minor adjustments, and 
lies near the middle to upper end of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 20.3N 118.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 20.4N 119.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 20.7N 120.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 21.2N 122.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 21.8N 123.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 22.6N 125.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 23.7N 124.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 26.9N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL