Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
446 AXPZ20 KNHC 052052 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.3N 117.1W at 05/2100 UTC, moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 31 ft (9.5 M). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed within 180 nm SW and 120 nm SE semicircles. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few days, with gradual weakening beginning by the mid part of the week. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. South of Southern Mexico (Invest 92E): A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N85W to 15N105W, and from 11N115W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 07N between 85W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 95W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico, and Invest 92E off southern Mexico. Rough to very rough seas along with swell and potential rough surf along the coast are the main impacts of Rachel off Baja California Sur and the Revillagigedo Islands. Elsewhere, the main focus is Invest 92E, the developing low pressure off western Oaxaca. Gentle breezes prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.5N 117.3W this evening, 20.5N 118.9W Tue morning, and 20.7N 120.2W Tue evening. The center of Rachel will continue westward to 21.1N 121.7W Wed morning, then weaken to a tropical storm near 21.7N 123.1W Wed evening, and move to 22.0N 124.6W Thu morning. Seas will continue to subside near the entrance to the Gulf of California this morning, and across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur today as Rachel continues to slowly move away from the area. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is currently producing scattered showers and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. The disturbance has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient dominate much of the basin north of the equator, allowing for light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the offshore waters of Central America producing gusty winds and higher seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered north of the area will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, along with mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas will persist between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador this week as a broad area of low pressure becomes better organized south of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico. Outside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, high pressure dominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.3N 118.2W tonight, 20.4N 119.5W Tue afternoon, 20.7N 120.9W Wed night, and 21.2N 122.3W Wed afternoon. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.6N 123.7W Thu morning, then move to 21.9N 124.9W Thu afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to 22.3N 126.0W Fri afternoon. Farther south, long-period SW swell will reach as far as the equator between 95W and 125W Tue through late Thu. Looking ahead, winds may increase and seas build over the waters north of 10N and east of 110W later this week as Invest 92E becomes better organized.