Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
122 AXNT20 KNHC 052037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days, before it turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours and the next seven day is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 60W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 56W and 62W. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along 85W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active over Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at 17N16W and extends to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 11N to 15N between 18W and 24W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Invest AL92. A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend area near 30N84W to 28N93W, where it becomes a stationary front and reaches to the mouth of the Rio Grande near 26N97W. Farther south a trough extends from 28N92W to the 1010 mb low pressure (Invest AL92) near 22N96W to 19N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend from 20N to 27N between 90W and 97W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong N to NE winds north and west of the front along the coasts of Texas and Mexico as far south as Veracruz. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft off Texas, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a trough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late Tue ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf today through Wed before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual development of a trough in the southwestern Gulf is becoming more likely, and a a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. Regardless of development, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. Mariners should monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergent flow aloft near an upper low centered over Jamaica is supporting afternoon showers and thunderstorms across Haiti, Jamaica, eastern Cuba and adjacent waters south of Haiti to 15N. Broad ridging over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh E winds over the south-central Caribbean, as noted in recent scatterometer satellite data. A concurrent altimeter pass indicated seas to 8 ft off Colombia in this area. Mostly moderate E to SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean. Fresh E winds and seas to 7 ft are likely ongoing over Atlantic waters just east of the southern Leeward and northern Windward Islands, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are active. For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will likely pulse to strong speeds at night through tonight. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin through Thu. High pressure is forecast to develop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly winds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri, then moderate to fresh Fri night through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A few showers and thunderstorms are active off Jacksonville, Florida, along a cold front reaching from 1014 mb low pressure near 31N79W to 30N81W. Ridging dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure east of Bermuda near 31N58W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3-5 ft west of 50W, except for an area of fresh winds and 7 ft seas east of Martinique. Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough reaching from weak 1014 mb low pressure near 32N35W to 26N40W. This is breaking up the subtropical ridge normally in place there, supporting light to gentle breezes across the north Atlantic basin south of 31N and east of 50W, with 3-5 ft seas in a mix of swell. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move slowly E over the area tonight and early Tue, stalling from Bermuda to NE Florida Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. Otherwise, by Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night.