Tropical Cyclone Discussion

078
WTPZ43 KNHC 052033
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026
 
The weakening trend of Rachel has paused for now. Satellite images
suggest that the hurricane has become slightly better organized
over the past several hours. The eye of the system is quite large,
well defined and warm, and deep convection remains fairly
symmetric around the center. A blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates supports nudging the initial intensity up to 80
kt.
 
The hurricane is moving westward at 7 kt steered by a high pressure 
system to the north-northeast of the cyclone. A continued westward 
to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as 
the high pressure system remains the primary steering feature. 
However, by the weekend, the high is expected to weaken as a mid- to 
upper-level trough amplifies near the west coast of the U.S. This 
pattern change should cause Rachel to slow down and then turn 
northeastward by the end of the forecast period. No significant 
changes were made to the previous track forecast, and this one lies 
generally near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Although Rachel appears a little stronger than earlier, no notable 
changes to the intensity forecasts were made. The hurricane is 
expected to gradually weaken as it moves over progressively cooler 
waters and into a much drier airmass. The models have not changed 
much this cycle, and this prediction is in line with the HCCA, 
GDMI, and IVCN aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 20.3N 117.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 20.4N 119.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 20.7N 120.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 21.2N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 21.6N 123.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 21.9N 124.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 22.3N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 23.5N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL