Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
364 AXNT20 KNHC 051022 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1010 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 57W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 21N between 49W and 62W. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along 84W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers associated with the wave are over the NW and SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 09N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 19N between 14W and 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from southern Alabama to SE Louisiana to southern Texas coastal waters. A pre-frontal trough extends from northern Florida to SE Louisiana coastal waters to a 1011 mb low offshore Tampico, which is generating scattered heavy showers and tstms over the Bay of Campeche and NE Mexico offshores. Similar shower activity is over the NE Gulf and along the NW Gulf coastal waters. Fresh to near gale-force NE winds are behind the front over the NW Gulf coastal waters while moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere over the cental and SE Gulf. Recent altimeter and buoy data show 2 to 5 ft seas basin wide, likely higher in the areas of strong convection. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow the trough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift E through late Tue ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf today through Wed before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, broad low pressure may develop over the far southwest Gulf Tue night into Wed. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the second half of this week while it initially drifts eastward before turning northward. Regardless of development, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An inverted trough over the central Caribbean continue to support scattered showers and isolated tstms in the Windward Passage, the lee side of E Cuba adjacent waters and the SW basin. Surface high pressure over the central subtropical Atlantic continue to support moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas with these winds are moderate to 7 ft while slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will likely pulse to strong speeds at night through tonight. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin through Thu. High pressure is forecast to develop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly winds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and isolated tstms prevail over the southern Bahamas and adjacent waters, including the Great Bahama Bank. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by surface ridging anchored by high pressure near the Azores, which is supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, the remnants of a front are analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 31N32W to 27N39W to 29N44W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are within 150 nm ahead of the trough. For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western Atlantic across Bermuda will continue to shift eastward through today ahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to NE Florida Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, but remain off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. Otherwise, by Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase easterly winds S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds.