Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
222 AXPZ20 KNHC 050939 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0935 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.4N 115.6W at 05/0900 UTC, moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 32 ft (10 M). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 17N to 22N and between 112W and 118W. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few days, with gradual weakening beginning by the mid part of the week. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. South of Southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is currently producing scattered showers and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. The disturbance has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to south of Mexico near 13N99W and then from 12N116W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 02N and east of 107W. Similar convection is found south of 15N and between 110W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico. Outside of the direct influence of Hurricane Rachel, high pressure north of the area support gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found in the offshore waters of Baja California N of 26N. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are still impacting the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, particularly between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the offshore waters of Mexico east of 105W and in the southern Gulf of California. Gusty winds and higher seas are noted with these storms. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.5N 116.7W this afternoon, 20.6N 118.2W Tue morning, 20.7N 119.7W Tue afternoon, 21.0N 121.0W Wed morning, 21.5N 122.5W Wed afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 124.1W Thu morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to the 22.4N 126.7W early Fri. Seas will continue to subside near the entrance to the Gulf of California this morning, and across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur today as Rachel continues to slowly move away from the area. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is currently producing scattered showers and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. The disturbance has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient dominate much of the basin north of the equator, allowing for light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the offshore waters of Central America producing gusty winds and higher seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered north of the area will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, along with mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas will persist between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador this week as a broad area of low pressure becomes better organized south of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico. Outside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, high pressure dominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.4N 115.6W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Rachel will move to 20.5N 116.7W this afternoon, 20.6N 118.2W Tue morning, 20.7N 119.7W Tue afternoon, 21.0N 121.0W Wed morning, 21.5N 122.5W Wed afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 124.1W Thu morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to the 22.4N 126.7W early Fri. Looking ahead, winds may increase and seas build over the eastern waters later this week as an area of low pressures becomes better organized.