Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
207 AXPZ20 KNHC 050359 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0325 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.2N 114.8W at 05/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 32 ft (10 M). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 15N to 22N and between 111W and 117W. A continued slow motion is expected for the next several days. Fluctuations in strength are possible overnight, but Rachel is expected to slowly weaken starting Monday. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N85W to south of Mexico near 14N99W and then from 14N121W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 05N and between 83W and 99W. Similar convection is found from 05N to 12N and west of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico. Away from the direct influence of Hurricane Rachel, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, prevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are still impacting the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, particularly between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas are beginning to subside near the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.3N 115.9W Mon morning, 20.4N 117.4W Mon evening, 20.4N 118.9W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.3W Tue evening, 21.1N 121.8W Wed morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.6N 123.3W Wed evening. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to the 22.2N 125.8W late Thu. Seas will continue to subside near the entrance to the Gulf of California tonight, and across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur on Mon as Rachel continues to slowly move away from the area. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is located just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. The chance of formation is low over the next 48 hours and high over the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient dominate much of the basin north of the equator, allowing for light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the offshore waters of Central America, especially west of Panama, producing gusty winds and higher seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered north of the area will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, along with mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas will persist between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador next week as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico. Outside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, high pressure dominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.3N 115.9W Mon morning, 20.4N 117.4W Mon evening, 20.4N 118.9W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.3W Tue evening, 21.1N 121.8W Wed morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.6N 123.3W Wed evening. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to the 22.2N 125.8W late Thu. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.3N 125.5W Thu afternoon. Rough seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the forecast waters roughly from 15N to 25N between 110W and 120W on Mon.