Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
405 AXNT20 KNHC 042304 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 55W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 51W and 57W. Moisture associated with this wave will reach the Windward Islands tonight into Mon increasing the chances of rain. This tropical wave is forecast to bring a wetter and more active pattern over Puerto Rico Wednesday into Thursday. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along 81W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17.5N16W and continues southwestward to 10N26W to 06N37W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to 10N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 13N between 16W and 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front is over the NW Gulf generating some convective activity. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas follow the front. A weak low pressure of 1008 mb is analyzed near 21.5N96W. A surface trough extends from the low center northward to near 27N96W. Fresh to locally strong W to NW winds and moderate to locally rough seas are noted between the trough axis and the coast of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with these features. Similar convective activity is also noted over the NE Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms are affecting the Yucatan Peninsula. A ridge extending from the western Atlantic into Florida is supporting moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas across much of the central and eastern Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will follow a trough along the E Mexican coast to Veracruz through Tue. The above mentioned ridge will shift SE into midweek ahead of a slowly moving front, which will stall over the northern Gulf. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front, with fresh to occasionally strong NW to N winds possible off Veracruz west of the front through late Mon. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through the latter part of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form around the middle of the week over the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive, some slow development is possible and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system drifts northward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. An upper-level low over Hispaniola is helping to induce this convective activity. High pressure north of the area, combined with the Colombian Low is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean Sea with moderate seas. For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will pulse at night through Mon. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms is located N of Puerto Rico, and is associated with an upper-level low. A surface trough is analyzed over the central Atlantic, and extends from 31N32W to 28N36W to 29N43W. Scattered moderate convection is just ahead of the trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by high pressure producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western Atlantic across Bermuda to the Carolinas will shift eastward through Mon ahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to NE Florida by mid week. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, but remain off NE Florida through Wed. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere.