Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
756 AXPZ20 KNHC 042154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.1N 114.3W at 04/2100 UTC, moving west at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 75 nm of center. A continued slow motion is expected through the middle of the week. Fluctuations in strength are possible through tonight, but Rachel is expected to slowly weaken beginning on Monday. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 12N96W, then resumes W of Rachel near 13N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 10N to 14N between 85W and 94W, from 00N to 06N between 100W and 110W, and from 04N to 09N W of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, prevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are still impacting the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, particularly between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas are beginning to subside near the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 20.2N 115.2W Mon morning, 20.3N 116.6W Mon afternoon, 20.4N 118.2W Tue morning, 20.6N 119.7W Tue afternoon, 20.9N 121.1W Wed morning, and 21.4N 122.7W Wed afternoon. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.3N 125.5W Thu afternoon. Seas will continue to subside near the entrance to the Gulf of California tonight, and across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur on Mon as Rachel continues to slowly move away from the area. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador next week as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 15N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades winds N of the monsoon trough to about 18N and W of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from 10N to 24N between 107W and 119W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 20.2N 115.2W Mon morning, 20.3N 116.6W Mon afternoon, 20.4N 118.2W Tue morning, 20.6N 119.7W Tue afternoon, 20.9N 121.1W Wed morning, and 21.4N 122.7W Wed afternoon. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.3N 125.5W Thu afternoon. Rough seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the forecast waters roughly from 15N to 25N between 110W and 120W on Mon.