Tropical Cyclone Discussion
793 WTPA42 PHFO 042038 TCDCP2 Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 57 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sun Oct 04 2026 Recent visible and infrared imagery show that outer rainbands have developed over the western semicircle, and Nolo is no longer exhibiting annular appearance. Shortly after the previous advisory, infrared imagery showed warming of the cloud tops and a thinning of the inner core convection over the southwestern quadrant. The eye has become more cloud filled and not as warm with an eye temperature around 7 C. A recent GMI microwave pass shows that the inner core is vertically aligned and perhaps the recent satellite degradation could just be a brief lull. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 95 to 102 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is maintained at 100 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/15 kt. Nolo is expected to continue being steered generally westward by a strong subtropical ridge located to its north. Over the next several days, the hurricane should maintain a similar or slightly slower forward speed along this heading. By the end of the forecast period, Nolo is forecast to reach the western periphery of the aforementioned ridge, which should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn west-northwestward to northwestward. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous and lies near the HCCA and GDMI track aids. Nolo is currently situated within a favorable environment, with warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear, some slight strengthening is possible over the next 18 to 24 hours. Between 24 and 36 hours, the cyclone is forecast to move into an area of increasing vertical wind shear and a much drier mid-level airmass. The combination of strong shear and dry air entrainment will induce a steady weakening trend through the middle-to-end of the week. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance suite through the short term, leaning closest to the regional hurricane models, before trending back toward the various consensus aids by the end of the forecast period. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future advisories will be issued by RSMC Tokyo, Japan. Advisories issued by RSMC Tokyo are found on the web at: www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm For U.S. interests, see advisories issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Honolulu, Hawaii. Advisories issued by JTWC can be found on the web at: www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 24.2N 180.0E 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 24.8N 177.7E 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 25.2N 174.6E 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 25.1N 170.9E 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 25.2N 166.4E 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 25.7N 162.3E 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 26.2N 158.2E 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 27.8N 152.0E 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 29.4N 149.7E 55 KT 65 MPH