Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
426 AXNT20 KNHC 041618 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 51W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extend from 08N to 18N between 48W and the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis along 81W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 18N between 78W and 83.5W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 10N37W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 12.5N53.5W to 12N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N and west of 34W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Middle to upper level diffluent flow and moisture inflow by SE flow from the Caribbean continue to fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms along the E Mexico offshores and over the NW Gulf behind a pre-frontal surface trough that extends from 29.5N92.5W to S of Tampico, Mexico. Similar shower activity is ongoing over the NE Gulf offshore waters in association to a deep layered trough. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are behind the trough. Ahead of the trough, a weaker pressure gradient support gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will follow a trough along the E Mexican coast to Veracruz through Tue. A ridge will extend from the western Atlantic into north Florida through today, supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas across much of the central and eastern Gulf. This ridge will shift SE into midweek ahead of a slowly moving front, which will stall over the northern Gulf. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front, with fresh to occasionally strong NW to N winds possible off Veracruz west of the front. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through the latter part of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are across the NW and central Caribbean waters while moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are moderate over the central basin and slight elsewhere. An upper level trough over the central Caribbean is supporting a cluster of showers and thunderstorms from 13N to 18N between 70W and 76W. For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central Caribbean through Tue morning, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh winds will prevail through Thu night, and offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh to strong will pulse at night through Mon. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high NE of Bermuda and a 1024 mb high W of the Azores near 36N44W extends across the subtropical Atlantic waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas, except for moderate to fresh NE winds near the Canary Islands. An upper level low north of the Hispaniola is supporting a cluster of showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas are likely higher in this area of convection. For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western Atlantic across Bermuda to the Carolinas will shift eastward through Mon ahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to NE Florida by mid week. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, but stay over the NE coastal and offshore waters of NE Florida through Wed. Gentle to moderate and slight seas will persist elsewhere.