Tropical Cyclone Discussion
012 WTPA42 PHFO 041439 TCDCP2 Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 56 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Oct 04 2026 Nolo appears to have completed an eyewall replacement cycle overnight. The satellite presentation has steadily improved over the past several hours, with the eyewall re-consolidating and a symmetric ring of deep convection now completely wrapping around the center. Over the past 6 hours, the eye has cleared drastically, transitioning from a ragged appearance to a distinct, circular, warming eye with temperatures near 15C. Objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have begun to respond to this improvement, and are in the 94-97 kt range. Based on the improved satellite presentation and these objective estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 100 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/16 kt. Nolo is expected to continue on a generally westward heading for the next several days, steered by a subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone. On the current forecast track, the system will cross the International Date Line into the western Pacific basin within the next 12 hours. By the end of the period, Nolo is forecast to reach the western periphery of the aforementioned ridge and begin to slow down. Track forecast uncertainty increases at that time, as the guidance diverges regarding exactly when and where the cyclone will slow down and turn north in response to a mid-latitude trough approaching from Japan. The latest NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly southward, trending toward the HCCA and GDMI aids. Nolo remains situated within a highly favorable environment for strengthening during the next 24 hours, characterized by warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Given the recent structural improvements noted in satellite imagery, the official NHC intensity forecast indicates further intensification and lies above the intensity guidance in the short term. Between 24-36 h, the cyclone is forecast to move into a region of increasing shear and into a drier mid-level airmass. However, recent satellite imagery indicates that Nolo is taking on annular characteristics. This structural evolution should make the inner core more resilient to the impending hostile conditions by limiting dry air entrainment, likely resulting in a slower initial rate of weakening than would otherwise be expected. Ultimately, the combination of strong shear and very dry air will take its toll, causing the system to steadily weaken beyond 48 hours. Given these structural and environmental conditions, the NHC intensity forecast remains on the high side of the guidance envelope. This prediction is closest to the hurricane regional models, but still above those, before trending back toward the consensus intensity aids by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 23.8N 178.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 24.3N 178.9E 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 24.9N 175.8E 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 25.0N 172.4E 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 25.0N 168.4E 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 25.3N 164.0E 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 25.9N 160.0E 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 26.9N 153.1E 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 28.6N 150.0E 55 KT 65 MPH