Tropical Cyclone Discussion

967
WTPZ43 KNHC 041435
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 AM MST Sun Oct 04 2026
 
Rachel has strengthened a little more this morning. Satellite
images indicate that the eye has become slightly more distinct, and
the inner core is well organized. The convective pattern is not
completely symmetric, however, with the coldest cloud tops
currently located to the north and west of the eye. The latest
satellite intensity estimates range from 80 to about 100 kt, and
based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged up to 90 kt.
The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on ASCAT data from
last night.

The hurricane is moving slowly west-northwestward at about 5 kt. A 
high pressure system to the north of Rachel should cause the system 
to turn westward by tonight, and move slowly in that direction 
through the middle of the week. After that time, the high is 
expected to weaken and shift eastward as a trough cuts off near the 
southern California coast, which should allow Rachel to turn back 
to the west-northwest. The NHC track forecast is nudged slightly to 
the north and is a little slower than the previous one, trending 
toward the latest GDMI and HCCA guidance.

Given the improved satellite appearance, Rachel will likely 
maintain its strength today. However, as the hurricane moves 
farther west, it will be entering a progressively drier airmass and 
moving over sub 26C waters in a couple of days. Therefore, steady 
weakening is forecast to begin on Monday. The NHC intensity 
forecast lies generally near the middle of the guidance envelope, 
and is largely an update of the previous one. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 20.2N 113.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 20.3N 114.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 20.5N 115.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 20.7N 117.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 20.7N 119.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 20.9N 120.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 21.3N 122.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 22.2N 125.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 22.8N 127.5W   45 KT  50 MPH