Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
677 AXNT20 KNHC 041049 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 49W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extend from 08N to 20N between 42W and 60W. A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis along 80W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 20N between 70W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 10N22W to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N30W to 07N45W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 13W and 31W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Middle to upper level diffluent flow and moisture inflow by SE flow from the Caribbean continue to fuel scattered heavy showers and tstms along the E Mexico offshores and over the NW Gulf behind a pre-frontal surface trough that extends from 29N91W to just NE of Tampico, Mexico. Similar shower activity is ongoing over the NE Gulf offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NNE winds and moderate seas are behind the trough. Ahead of the trough, a weaker pressure gradient support gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will follow a trough along the E Mexican coast to Veracruz through Tue. A ridge will extend from the western Atlantic into north Florida through today, supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas across much of the central and eastern Gulf. Looking ahead, this ridge will shift SE into midweek ahead of a slowly moving front, which will stall over the northern Gulf by midweek. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front, with fresh to strong NW to N winds possible off Veracruz through the early part of the week. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through the latter part of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are across the NW and central Caribbean waters while moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are moderate over the central basin and slight elsewhere. An upper level low to the NE of Hispaniola continue to support scattered heavy showers over the Dominican Republic adjacent waters and southern Haiti. Otherwise, upper level diffluent flow and a tropical wave support similar shower activity over the central basin and the lee side of Cuba adjacent waters. For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central Caribbean through Tue morning, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh winds will prevail through Thu night, and offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh to strong will pulse at night through Mon. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters N of the region, further lowering the pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin. Otherwise, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are possible across Hispaniola today, mainly over Haiti and western Hispaniola. Available moisture and local effects as daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting, will likely increase the chances of rain in the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high NNE of Bermuda and a 1024 mb high W of the Azores near 39N45W extends across the subtropical Atlantic waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas, except for moderate to fresh NE winds near the Canary Islands. There is a weakeness in the ridge being analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 31N58W to the Dominican Republic adjacent waters where an upper level low is supporting a cluster of heavy showers and tstms. Winds and seas are likely higher in this area of convection. For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western Atlantic across Bermuda to the Carolinas will shift eastward through Mon ahead of a cold front that will briefly stall off the NE Florida coast before it merges with a trailing cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, but stay over the NE coastal and offshore waters of NE Florida through Wed. Gentle to moderate and slight seas will persist elsewhere.