Tropical Cyclone Discussion

212
WTPZ43 KNHC 040834
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM MST Sun Oct 04 2026

Satellite imagery shows that Rachel has continued to get better 
organized since the last advisory. While the eye is not very clear 
at this time, the eyewall cloud tops have become more symmetric with 
some cloud top temperatures colder than -80C. The various satellite 
intensity estimates are in the 76-104 kt range, and they have all 
trended upward over the past six hours. Based on this, the initial 
intensity is increased to 85 kt.

The initial motion is now 295/4 kt. A turn toward the west with 
some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 72 h as 
a mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane strengthens a bit. 
After 72 h, a mid-latitude trough approaching from the west will 
create a break in the ridge near 130-135W, and Rachel is expected 
to turn west-northwestward again as it approaches the break. The 
new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous 
track, and it lies close to the center of the fairly well clustered 
track guidance.

Sea surface temperature analyses indicate that Rachel should be 
crossing Polo's cold wake right now. The current development trend 
is not consistent with this, though. During the next 24 h, the 
hurricane should move over slightly warmer water that in theory 
should allow some strengthening. However, none of the intensity 
guidance shows any additional strengthening during this time. Given 
these mixed signals, the new intensity forecast will show a steady 
intensity for 12 h, followed by a gradual weakening based on the 
intensity guidance trends. Rachel should encounter a drier air 
mass and reach water temperatures of 25-26C starting in about 72 h, 
but during this time the forecast wind shear becomes quite light. 
This may allow the cyclone to develop annular characteristics, 
which would at least slow any weakening. Overall, the intensity 
forecast is near the upper edge of the guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 20.2N 113.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 20.3N 114.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 20.4N 115.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 20.5N 116.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 20.6N 118.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 20.6N 120.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 20.9N 121.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 21.8N 124.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 22.7N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH